(Host) America’s role in the world was a low priority subject at both
political conventions. Yet as commentator and veteran ABC News foreign
correspondent Barrie Dunsmore notes today, there is still time for the
world to force itself onto the election agenda before the November
elections.
(Dunsmore) An "October Surprise" is a major news
event calculated to affect the outcome of the November presidential
election. Perhaps the first example was in October 1972, when then
Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who for years had been negotiating
to end the Vietnam War, declared "peace is at hand." It turned out that
it wasn’t. But President Richard Nixon won a landslide victory over
Democratic Senator George McGovern, and probably would have done so
anyway.
In 1980 there were rumors that President Jimmy Carter
was going to get the American hostages out of Iran shortly before the
election, but Carter himself eventually squelched that story. Then came
another strong rumor that Ronald Reagan’s Republicans had secretly made a
deal with Iran for the hostages to be held until after the election. In
fact the hostages were not released until the very moment Reagan was
inaugurated – but no smoking gun for such a deal was ever found. In any
event, most historians now believe that the way Carter mishandled the
more than year long hostage crisis was an important factor in making him
a one term president.
So what about October 2012? Well, if
there is an October Surprise this election year, it could be an Israeli
attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Israel and the U.S. had been
planning a massive military exercise in October, involving a record
number of troops and U.S. war ships in the region. However Time Magazine
is now reporting that while these annual war games will take place, the
Pentagon is scaling them way back. Evidently the Obama administration
didn’t want the Iranians – or the Israelis for that matter – to
misconstrue this exercise as a prelude to an Israeli-American attack on
Iran.
It is certainly no secret that Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu has little respect for President Barack Obama. And he
continues to insist that force is the only way to stop Iran from
becoming a nuclear power.
But Israel has neither the weapons nor
the logistical support systems to successfully attack Iran on its own.
For his part, President Obama believes more time must be given for tough
international sanctions to take their toll – and for negotiations to
play out. He is therefore resisting being dragged into another Middle
East war – for the very persuasive reasons that such an unnecessary war
would have huge human and economic costs for Americans – and would only
delay not end Iran’s nuclear program.
And yet, if Israel were to
attack Iran in October – especially considering Republican candidate
Mitt Romney’s total, unquestioning support for Netanyahu – how could
President Obama not come to the side of Israel when the Iranians
inevitably struck back? America and Obama would be in a total no-win
situation.
A number of serious analysts now fear that this
October Surprise scenario could well take place. Among all the other
major negatives, this would constitute an egregious overt effort by a
foreign power to manipulate the American election results.