(Host) Egyptians went to the polls this week for the first time since they
overthrew dictator Hosni Mubarak last spring. But as commentator and
former ABC News diplomatic correspondent Barrie Dunsmore tells us this
morning , Egypt’s journey to democracy remains long and uncertain.
(Dunsmore) For the first time in many decades, Egyptians began voting freely this
week to choose a new parliament. As Americans should know from recent
experience in Iraq and Afghanistan, voting and democracy are not
synonymous. Still, seventy percent of eligible voters turned out and
there was only minor sporadic violence. Given that just last week,
dozens of Egyptians were killed in massive protests against the ruling
military council, this first round of voting went better than most
people expected. Yet the problems ahead are daunting.
Under a
complicated system, the process of electing a lower chamber of
parliament will take two months. Then two more months are scheduled for
choosing the members of the upper house. At the end of March, the new
parliament is supposed to select a 100 member body to write a new
constitution.
While that constitutional commission ought to
reflect the outcome of the parliamentary elections – it may not. That’s
because the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces – which assumed power
after Mubarak’s ouster- wants to dictate how the new constitution
defines the role of the military. That proclamation was made on the eve
of the parliamentary elections, setting off the deadly demonstrations of
last week. And while the protesters did force the military to move up
the presidential election from 2013 to June of 2012, the generals have
not rescinded their demands that suggest they intend to stay in power
indefinitely.
As the military effectively controls most of the
Egyptian economy it has always been unclear if the Supreme Council would
ever be willing to cede power to a civilian authority – and that
remains a huge question mark.
Until now, the other big question
has been just how influential Islamic political parties will be in defining the role of Islam in the constitution – and in the
everyday lives of the people. As Egypt is a Muslim country and voters
are now free to choose their representatives from among Islamists, it
was almost inevitable Islamic candidates would end with up with a
majority of parliamentary seats – and in preliminary voting counting
they apparently have.
The Moslem Brotherhood – which was formed
in Egypt in 1928 and is the best organized political movement in the
country – got about forty percent in the early vote count. Now in the
new Egypt, many younger Brotherhood members tend to be moderate and have
expressed a willingness to share power with secular parties. On the
other hand, the ultraconservative Salafists – who among other things
want to ban alcohol, reduce women’s rights and end the peace treaty with
Israel – are apparently now a real factor in the political process.
The
meaning of all of this will ultimately depend on the final balance
among liberal, moderate and conservative Islamists. All we know for
certain today is that Egypt is in major transition – and that the
outcome of its new revolution is still very much in the process of being
determined.