(Host) The number of voters using the early ballot system for this year’s primary election is considerably lower than expected.
Political observers believe it’s a sign that overall turnout for the primary will be lower than projected.
And, as VPR’s Bob Kinzel reports, that may mean the five-way Democratic contest for governor will be even more competitive.
(Kinzel) When lawmakers moved Vermont’s primary to August 24th, many supporters believed that the state’s expanded early voting system would help boost participation. But so far that hasn’t happened.
Middlebury College political science professor emeritus Eric Davis thinks the lack of interest in early voting is a signal that turnout for the primary will be considerably lower than he projected.
Davis believed that roughly 60,000 people would vote in the Democratic primary. Now he thinks the number will be closer to 40,000.
(Davis) "I think for many people politics and the political season really does not start until Labor Day. So it’s a challenge for candidates to get their message out before the August 24th primary. I believe with a lower turnout we’re more likely to see a competitive four-candidate field with Markowitz, Shumlin, Dunne, Racine all very much in the mix."
(Kinzel) And Davis says that while Deb Markowitz, Doug Racine and Peter Shumlin have gotten the most attention in recent weeks, he thinks Matt Dunne is still right in the mix.
(Davis) "In the month of August, Dunne may end up actually raising more money than any of the other campaigns. Plus we know in his race for lieutenant governor in 2006, Matt Dunne is someone who closes fast. So I would say the Dunne campaign has good momentum at this point."
(Kinzel) One reason why may be Dunne’s strategy to build a strong presence on the Internet. Kevin O’Holleran is Dunne’s campaign manger.
(O’Holleran) "We have over 2,100 people who are fans on Facebook, which is more than the other candidates. We have engaged them online in discussions in which people aren’t just clicking through the page, but are actively engaging the campaign and becoming involved on the issues and what’s going on."
(Kinzel) And O’Holleran says the interactive nature of the campaign’s online approach is proving to be a big asset.
(O’Holleran) "I think people appreciate that instead of candidates who just view online activity as a way to help raise money for their campaigns that we’re using this as a platform to have a discussion and to engage people, to get them involved in the campaign and hopefully to earn their support in the process."
(Kinzel) Each candidate is using a different core strategy to win the most votes.
Peter Shumlin is relying on a strong TV campaign, Doug Racine is hoping his labor endorsements will translate into votes. Deb Markowitz has raised the most money to help finance a statewide organization. Susan Bartlett is courting moderate voters. and Matt Dunne is counting on the Internet.
In three weeks it will be clear which strategy was the most successful.
For VPR News, I’m Bob Kinzel in Montpelier