(Host)
Especially this time of year, when we hear the word "Turkey," most of
us think about hunting, or Thanksgiving dinner. But for commentator Bill
Mares, the word has recently taken on new meaning.
(Mares) Our
older son works for a Chinese-American wire company that has sent him to
Turkey six times in the last year. He considers Turkey the perfect
bridge to serve both Europe and the Middle East. It’s not part of the EU
yet, but its favorable taxes and lower manufacturing costs make it very
competitive. And the population of Turkey is young and
English-speaking, with a strong work ethic and a business-minded
attitude.
For all the talk of the Arab spring, and the perennial
palpitations about Iran, I think that Turkey is today the most
interesting country in the Middle East. And now that one of my sons has
been working there, I’m even more convinced.
Turkey is a nation
of 73 million people, and it has changed more in the last 10 years than
in the previous 100. Modern Turkey was established as a rigorously
secular state, but it’s just passed successfully through the third
election of a moderately Islamist party, led by Recip Tayyip-Erdogan,
whose political success comes from a clever blend of religious devotion,
Turkish nationalism and a well-oiled party machine.
In 2003,
Turkey showed its foreign policy independence when, although a member of
NATO, it refused to allow Americans to attack Iraq from Turkish bases.
Today, the Turks have openly sympathized with rebels against the Assad
regime in Syria.
When Turkey grew tired of waiting for approval
to join the European Union, it turned back to the Middle East and to
Central Asia for more of its business.
Recent Arab opinion polls
show a striking increase in respect for Turkey and a kindred decline of
favor toward Iran. Part of its appeal is that it’s a predominantly
Muslim culture with conservative values, but also a moderately
successful democracy with a growing economy.
Some Sunni Arabs also see Turkey as a bulwark against the influence of Shia Iran.
Turkey
certainly has problems. Some fear that Erdogan is becoming too
authoritarian. Press freedoms are under attack. The military leadership,
which has long been the guardian of a secular state, has resigned in
protest. The central government still cannot figure out how to integrate
10 million Kurds into full citizenship and identity, especially when
one Kurd faction is still in active revolt.
Erdogan’s most
important asset is the economic boom over which he has presided. Turkish
businesses are active in more than 80 countries across the Middle East ,
Central Asia and Africa . In just one decade, they have attracted more
than 90 billion dollars in direct foreign investment.
Challenges
abound, such as finding a middle ground between full secularism and
fundamentalism, enabling the Kurds to achieve full citizenship, and
avoiding another military coup. Turkey’s vibrant economy could overheat.
How much influence Turkey be able to exert on the murderous Syrian
regime, or the ayatollahs of Iran is anyone’s guess. I expect that the
next ten years will be every bit as intriguing for Turkey as the last
ten.