Henningsen: Second Term Curse

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(Host) President Obama  achieved a great victory last November, but if
history is any
guide, that victory gave him more of a challenge than a mandate.
Teacher, historian, and commentator Vic Henningsen considers why
presidential second acts are often more notable for misfortune than
accomplishment.

(Henningsen) There’s an historical axiom,
"Today’s solution is tomorrow’s problem" that President Obama might
consider as he begins his final term – as many second terms have
resulted in the shipwreck of presidential hopes and dreams.

The
so-called "Second Term Curse" began with George Washington. Re-elected
unanimously in 1792, he virtually fled from office four years later,
denounced as a dictator for crushing the Whiskey Rebellion, for his
pro-British foreign policy, and for supporting big business and commerce
at the expense of small farmers and laborers. Thomas Jefferson threw
the nation into depression during his second term when he imposed an
economic embargo to keep the country out of the Napoleonic Wars. Andrew
Jackson took re-election as a mandate to restructure American banking
and set the country up for one of its worst depressions. Woodrow
Wilson’s second term collapsed in a failed effort to bring the U.S. into
the League of Nations after World War I. Richard Nixon, of course,
never finished his second term because of Watergate; Ronald Reagan
became enmeshed in the Iran-Contra scandal; Bill Clinton was impeached;
and George W. Bush got clobbered when he tried to privatize Social
Security after winning another term in ‘04.

The larger the
electoral victory, it seems, the worse the second term, because big
winners believe they have overwhelming support to do anything they want –
like Franklin Roosevelt. After winning every state but Maine and
Vermont in 1936, he tried to pack the Supreme Court to get around
conservative justices opposed to his New Deal. The result? The public
deserted him, he split his own party, and couldn’t get domestic
legislation through a newly hostile Congress.

Now, even bad
second terms have their moments. After all, Nixon ended the Vietnam War
and helped end the 1973 Arab-Israeli conflict. Reagan reformed the tax
code and negotiated crucial arms control agreements with the Soviet
Union. Bill Clinton balanced the budget and helped bring peace to the
Balkans. But their failures outweigh these accomplishments.

Second
term presidents often see mandates when, in fact, voters simply
preferred them to their opponent. And they’re lame ducks, increasingly
marginalized as attention turns to potential successors and the next
election. Thus, it’s difficult to accomplish broad, significant change.

Perhaps
President Obama can beat the historical odds and craft a strong record
during his final term. To do that, he might remember his predecessor
Lyndon Johnson. After winning in 1964 with the largest popular majority
in American history, Johnson said "[I’ve] got just one year" to
accomplish his aims. He went into overdrive to create what became the
"Great Society" before the agony of Vietnam destroyed his presidency.

Obama
has less popular support and more determined opponents than Johnson,
but he does have that all-important year before he loses the initiative
that comes with re-election.

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